Petrol Imports Still Dominate Nigeria’s Fuel Supply Despite Refinery Gains in 2025

Petrol imports remained Nigeria’s primary source of fuel supply in 2025, accounting for about 62 per cent of total consumption, despite improved output from domestic refineries, according to regulatory data.

Figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority show that Nigerians consumed about 18.97 billion litres of petrol in 2025, with imports supplying roughly 11.85 billion litres, while domestic refineries contributed about 7.54 billion litres.

The data indicate that although local refining capacity expanded during the year—driven largely by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery—imports continued to dominate due to gradual production ramp-up, logistics challenges and fluctuating demand following full deregulation of petrol pricing.

Dangote refinery accounted for nearly all domestic petrol supply in 2025, delivering about 7.54 billion litres for the year, slightly below its projected annual target. Output improved significantly toward the end of the year, with December recording the strongest domestic supply levels.

Monthly consumption patterns showed wide fluctuations, influenced by seasonal demand, pricing conditions and supply dynamics. Import volumes rose sharply during peak demand months, particularly in May and November, when imports met most of the country’s petrol needs.

Despite claims by some industry stakeholders that imports have effectively ended, energy experts caution that Nigeria remains structurally reliant on imported fuel to stabilise supply and manage risk.

Energy economist Wumi Iledare said domestic refining has reduced Nigeria’s marginal dependence on imports but has not eliminated it, noting that the downstream market remains anchored to import-parity pricing.

He warned that declarations suggesting the end of petrol importation could undermine policy credibility, stressing that sustainable energy security depends on market discipline, infrastructure efficiency and regulatory consistency.

Industry analysts say Nigeria’s refining landscape has improved significantly, but achieving long-term stability will require domestic refineries to meet at least 70 per cent of national demand, supported by reliable crude supply and efficient logistics.