French PM Bayrou Survives No-Confidence Vote—But for How Long?

French Prime Minister François Bayrou on Tuesday narrowly survived a no-confidence vote, a stark reflection of the fragile political ground he stands on after just six months in office.

The Socialist Party (PS) introduced the motion following the collapse of pension reform negotiations. It garnered 189 votes—far below the 289 needed to topple the government. While the motion gained wide backing from the left, it was not supported by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN).

Bayrou lacks a parliamentary majority in the National Assembly, and this vote spotlighted his growing vulnerability, especially after losing support from the Socialists who had previously backed him.

Although Bayrou dismissed the vote as a “joke” publicly, insiders say he’s fuming behind the scenes. A minister noted that the 74-year-old Prime Minister is particularly angry with the PS, citing betrayal by former allies. “No more leniency toward François Bayrou,” PS leader Olivier Faure declared.

Le Pen argued that censuring the government wouldn’t help the public—but warned her party would closely scrutinize Bayrou’s upcoming 2026 budget. The RN hasn’t ruled out joining a future effort to remove him, especially during the autumn budget battle, just as it did with his predecessor, Michel Barnier.

Budgetary talks are expected to be tense, with France grappling with steep financial hurdles. Government spokesperson Sophie Primas previously described the 2026 budget process as a looming “nightmare.”

Bayrou was appointed by President Emmanuel Macron last December to restore calm after months of post-election unrest. If parliament ousts him in the future, Macron would be forced to appoint a seventh prime minister, putting the stability of his presidency at further risk.