Nigeria’s crude export earnings drop 14% to $31.5bn despite output rise

Nigeria’s crude oil export earnings declined to $31.54 billion in 2025, representing a 14 per cent drop from $36.85 billion recorded in 2024, despite an increase in overall production.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that the fall in earnings dragged the country’s current account surplus down to $14.04 billion from $19.03 billion in the previous year, reflecting the continued exposure of Nigeria’s economy to volatility in global oil prices.

Total crude oil production rose to 530.41 million barrels in 2025, up from 408.68 million barrels in 2024, while combined crude and condensate output stood at 599.64 million barrels. However, this fell short of the budget target of 766.5 million barrels, indicating a deficit of 166.86 million barrels due to operational challenges and failure to meet OPEC quotas for most of the year.

Gas and refined petroleum exports provided some relief. Gas earnings rose by 21 per cent to $10.51 billion, while refined petroleum exports reached $6.13 billion, buoyed by increased domestic refining capacity.

Overall oil and gas exports grew to $48.17 billion in 2025 from $45.51 billion in 2024, but external pressures persisted as non-oil imports climbed by 14 per cent to $29.24 billion. Service account outflows also increased to $14.58 billion, while primary income outflows surged by 61 per cent to $9.09 billion, driven by higher payments to foreign investors.

Fuel import costs dropped significantly to $10 billion from $14.06 billion in 2024, reflecting improved local refining. However, crude oil imports of $3.74 billion were recorded, largely tied to feedstock supply for domestic refineries.

Consequently, Nigeria’s balance of payments surplus narrowed to $4.23 billion in 2025 from $6.83 billion the previous year, even as external reserves rose to $45.75 billion.

Analysts say the figures highlight both progress in domestic refining and the urgent need to diversify export earnings beyond crude oil to stabilise the economy.