Middle East Crisis Squeezes Africa’s Fuel Supply

The escalating crisis in the Middle East is placing significant pressure on Africa’s fuel supply chain, leaving several countries with only weeks’ worth of refined petroleum products as key import routes face disruption.

The tension, linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, has severely affected shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical corridor for global energy trade.

According to the International Energy Agency, approximately 600,000 barrels per day of petroleum products typically bound for Africa from the Middle East are now at risk as tanker traffic slows significantly.

The disruption has forced governments across the continent to urgently explore alternative supply options amid fears that wealthier economies could outbid African buyers in an increasingly tight global market.

Analysts say the crisis is exposing structural weaknesses in Africa’s energy system, particularly its heavy reliance on imported refined fuel due to years of underinvestment and refinery shutdowns.

Data from energy analytics firm Kpler shows that petroleum product loadings dropped sharply from 580,000 metric tonnes in January to 183,000 metric tonnes in February—a decline of 397,000 metric tonnes, representing a 68.4 per cent fall. By March, volumes had plunged to zero, marking a complete halt in shipments.

The figures point to a full-scale supply breakdown within the first quarter, highlighting the severity of disruptions in global fuel flows.

Further tracking indicates that several cargoes originally destined for Europe and Africa have been redirected to Asia, where demand has surged. One such vessel altered its course near East Africa, shifting from a European-bound route to Asia, underscoring changing global trade dynamics.

The impact is already evident across East and Southern Africa, where reliance on Middle Eastern fuel imports is particularly high.

“We are looking everywhere for supply options,” said Jacob Mbele. “We are comfortable that in the coming weeks or so, we are safe, but the situation is fluid; it changes every day.”

Experts warn that securing fuel cargoes will become increasingly difficult for many African countries, especially those with limited foreign exchange reserves and weaker bargaining power.

The crisis is compounded by declining refining capacity across the continent. Despite accounting for about seven per cent of global crude oil production, Africa has lost nearly a third of its refining capacity over the past two decades, deepening its dependence on imports.

Countries like Kenya, which consume roughly 100,000 barrels of fuel daily and rely entirely on imports, remain highly vulnerable, with fuel reserves estimated at just 21 days.

“The biggest suppliers are rationing product, and some distributors are experiencing stock-outs in rural areas,” said Martin Chomba.

In Ethiopia, the government has urged citizens to cut fuel consumption, prioritising essential services as supply constraints intensify. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said fuel use must now be directed toward “basic and essential needs.”

In West Africa, however, the supply gap left by reduced Middle Eastern and Indian shipments is increasingly being filled by imports from Russia. Kpler data shows that about 480,000 metric tonnes of Russian diesel arrived in the region in February, with an additional 446,000 metric tonnes expected in March.

Meanwhile, shifts in global demand are also affecting supply flows. Data from S&P Global indicates that Indian diesel exports to Southeast Asia have surged, driven by stronger pricing, leaving African markets with reduced access to traditional supply channels.

For Nigeria, there appears to be a degree of insulation. The Dangote Refinery, alongside smaller modular refineries, is helping meet a substantial portion of domestic demand, estimated at about 493,000 barrels per day.

The 650,000-barrels-per-day facility, which began operations in 2024, is gradually scaling up and is expected to generate surplus volumes for export. However, challenges remain, as the refinery still depends partly on imported crude, reflecting broader structural constraints.

Energy analysts caution that the crisis could have lasting implications for fuel prices and energy security across Africa. They stress the need for accelerated investment in domestic refining capacity and diversified supply sources to reduce vulnerability to global shocks.

As tensions persist, the scramble for fuel supplies is intensifying, leaving Africa’s energy security increasingly uncertain.