2027: Why APC’s Script Can Be Torn Apart by Strategy, Not Sentiment

As Tinubu continues to script his 2027 ambition through tribal calculations and political favoritism, what his team has failed to grasp is that 2023 wasn’t won solely on sentiment.

It was a fluke — a result of division, silence from real power blocks, and calculated desperation.

But 2027 won’t be that easy. Tribalism and religion are now spent forces in the face of economic despair, insecurity, and hunger biting across all regions. Nigerians are not fools.

The same masses that were swayed by “Emilokan” are now paying for fuel at triple the price, buying food at five times the cost, and living under fear and frustration.

This government’s biggest mistake is assuming Nigerians will forget. They’ve returned to the same loan culture they once condemned, now trying to cover their failures with buzzwords like “reforms.” In reality, it’s trial and error laced with propaganda.

What they call economic restructuring is seen by the common man as survival of the fittest — with the poor pushed further down the ladder.

Tinubu’s current strategy is to secure all six Southwest states with over 80% loyalty votes, use Wike and Akpabio to divide the South-South, pull Northern Christians from Kwara, Benue, Plateau, and cherry-pick four winnable states in the Northwest and Northeast, while securing 25% in the rest.

His target? Just 16–17 states and the FCT — not for national unity, but for political math.

But here’s the catch: this math crumbles if the opposition gets serious.

The counterstrategy is simple — unity and credibility. Peter Obi brings energy, Atiku has legacy and reach, Kwankwaso controls grassroots machinery, and even silent powerhouses like El-Rufai and Amaechi still command influence.

Goodluck Jonathan, if he chooses to speak or align, can completely shift the South-South equation.

If the opposition presents a unified front — say Obi and El-Rufai, or Kwankwaso on one ticket, or GEJ returning to complete his tenure, or Atiku running with full support — the APC house begins to shake.

Add a strategic narrative that speaks directly to people’s pain — hunger, joblessness, insecurity, poor education — and the ground starts to shift.

Let’s not forget that even in APC strongholds like the Southwest, people are beginning to see the truth. Tribal loyalty doesn’t fill stomachs.

Lagosians now understand the myth of “Lagos success.” It’s built on propaganda, debt, and elite capture.

Tinubu may have ruled the state, but did he truly empower the masses? Figures like Kayode Fayemi, Aregbesola, and others will challenge APC from within.

In the North, no current APC leader — not even Tinubu’s VP — enjoys blind followership. El-Rufai is still seen as bold, unpredictable, and fiercely intellectual.

Kwankwaso remains king in Kano. Atiku continues to be the go-to figure for many northern power brokers. If they unite — even loosely — APC’s calculations fall apart.

Buhari’s 12-million-vote bank is no longer available, and he can’t dictate the North’s direction anymore — he has gotten everything he wanted.

In the North-Central, appointing an SGF from Benue and supporting APC figures in Plateau doesn’t equal street-level support. Many are still disillusioned by the Muslim-Muslim ticket and failed promises.

Even the FCT isn’t guaranteed — Wike’s drama aside, people are watching. Protest votes could erupt. Kwara may lean toward the Southwest, but Saraki will put up a strong fight.

In Niger, the president is relying heavily on Governor Bago’s rising popularity — but traditionally, Niger aligns with the Northwest’s political direction.

In Nasarawa, influential figures like Abdullahi Adamu and Al-Makura remain quiet but will play roles when decisions are being made. Kogi is unpredictable — it depends on where the country is heading by 2027.

The South-South will be the real battleground. APC hopes to capture three states, but if GEJ and Amaechi unite against Wike and Akpabio’s antics, that plan collapses.

Rivers State is already boiling over political crises, and if the opposition rides that wave effectively, it becomes a turning point. Edo is still a 50-50 battleground, and Delta is open. Cross River is APC-led but far from secured.

The Southeast may not offer Tinubu much, but the opposition must not ignore it. Obi’s presence, along with figures like Okorocha and others, can deliver solid votes and a moral backbone to the campaign if well integrated into a larger coalition.

But this all depends on the opposition dropping their egos and acting with urgency. Now is the time to announce a shadow cabinet — let Nigerians know who will handle the economy, education, youth affairs, and infrastructure.

Let them see that you’re not just running against APC, but running for the people. That’s exactly why the president is hell-bent on fighting the opposition through proxies.

He knows that a strong and united opposition can defeat him — especially as he remains one of the most unpopular presidents ever, winning only 36.61% of the total vote cast in 2023.

That’s also why Wike is tearing PDP apart through litigation and division — to ensure the opposition doesn’t find its feet.

2027 cannot be business as usual. Nigerians are wiser. This time, it’s about the soul of the country, not the tribe of the candidate. Tinubu may have written his script, but if the opposition unites and plays smart — that script can be rewritten by the people.

Let the real game begin.

The truth is, forget all the noise from those in government and their supporters — 2027 isn’t secured for anyone. Their bragging that “Tinubu isn’t Jonathan, so he can’t be a one-term president” is all fuss.

Nigerians were not as tired during GEJ’s time as they are now. They’ve seen all the Shege — insecurity is still rampant, and poverty and inflation have reached unprecedented levels.

So yes, Tinubu can be defeated. Like every other leader, he can’t withstand an election driven by complete protest votes, no matter the level of rigging. GEJ was actually more loved by Nigerians back then than Tinubu is now — yet that didn’t stop him from losing.

Shamsudeen Ibrahim